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Lithuania vs Israel — Friendlies 2026

Lithuania
Lithuania
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Israel
Israel
11/13/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lithuania43%
×Draw29%
Israel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lithuania
1.25
Israel
0.95

Lithuania creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lithuania
0.80
Israel
1.10

allows per match

Lithuania
0.80
Israel
1.70

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par
Israel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Israel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw
72%
Lithuania or Israel
71%
Draw or Israel
57%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+
19%
Israel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals
71%
Lithuania 2+ goals
36%
Lithuania 3+ goals
13%
Israel 1+ goals
61%
Israel 2+ goals
25%
Israel 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)
61%
Israel (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Israel away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 0.80 + Israel defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.25

Israel attack 1.10 + Lithuania defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lithuania scores more
43%
level
29%
Israel scores more
28%

Lithuania at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lithuania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Lithuania 0–0 Israel

Lithuania and Israel drew 0-0 in Friendlies on November 13, 2025.

The match was played at S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas in Kaunas.