Lithuania 1–1 Faroe Islands: Result & Stats

Lithuania

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Faroe Islands

V. Slivka 41'

J. Andreasen 22'

9/22/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 5Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lithuania30%

×Draw28%

Faroe Islands42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.28

Lithuania

1.02

Faroe Islands

1.28

Faroe Islands creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

0.67

creates per match

0.64

1.92

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Lithuania

0.67

Faroe Islands

0.64

allows per match

Lithuania

1.92

Faroe Islands

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Faroe Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

58%

Lithuania or Faroe Islands

72%

Draw or Faroe Islands

70%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

11%

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

64%

Lithuania 2+ goals

27%

Lithuania 3+ goals

8%

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

72%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

37%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

41%

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 0.67 + Faroe Islands defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

Faroe Islands attack 0.64 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lithuania scores more

30%

level

28%

Faroe Islands scores more

42%

Faroe Islands at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Faroe Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

V. Slivka

Lithuania · M

7.3

Match Events

22'

J. Andreasen↳ J. Bjartalíð

41'

V. Slivka↳ F. Černych

44'

Vykintas SlivkaGoal confirmed

46'

M. Vorobjovas← L. Mėgelaitis

56'

61'

65'

72'

75'

76'

A. Dolžnikov← J. Lasickas

76'

T. Milašius← P. Golubickas

77'

P. Johannesen← J. Símun Edmundsson

82'

M. Mikkelsen← M. Olsen

87'

R. Baravykas← S. Mikoliūnas

90+1'

S. Nattestad← K. Olsen

90+2'

H. Hansen← R. Joensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LithuaniaFaroe

Overview

55%Possession45%

6Total Shots7

2Corners4

18Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots7

1On Target3

2Off Target3

3Blocked1

3Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

440Total Passes358

322Accurate Passes240

73%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls19

4Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0