Lithuania U19 0–0 Northern Ireland U19

Lithuania U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Ireland U19

3/31/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League B - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lithuania U1935%

×Draw34%

Northern Ireland U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lithuania U19Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.83

Lithuania U19

0.89

Northern Ireland U19

0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

0.86

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Lithuania U19

0.86

Northern Ireland U19

0.67

allows per match

Lithuania U19

1.00

Northern Ireland U19

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U19 ↓

Northern Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Lithuania U19 or draw

69%

Lithuania U19 or Northern Ireland U19

66%

Draw or Northern Ireland U19

65%

Winning margin

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

12%

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

59%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

22%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

6%

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

56%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

20%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Northern Ireland U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U19 attack 0.86 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.67 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Lithuania U19 scores more

35%

level

34%

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

31%

Lithuania U19 at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Lithuania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

R. Piazenko← C. Mennea

46'

L. Hawe← C. Madden

82'

C. Anderson← O. Gamble

82'

B. Downey← P. Stanfield

85'

Z. Sutton← N. McDonnell

89'

V. Bradunas← K. Gustas

Lithuania

Northern

1

McDonnell

14

▼

Stanfield

4

▼

McDonnell

15

McGarry

3

▼

2

8

6

10

▼

9

11

1

2

14

4

13

17

6

8

▼

Gustas

7

Taucas

11

Emerhi

19

▼

Mennea

Manager: R. Breu

46'▲R. Piazenko←▼C. Mennea

89'▲V. Bradunas←▼K. Gustas

Lithuania U19 substitutes

12Cekavicius3Balsys5Jermakovas9Piazenko10Grabauskas15Stambrauskas18Bradunas20Diugevic21Padegimas

Manager: G. McAuley

46'▲L. Hawe←▼C. Madden

82'▲C. Anderson←▼O. Gamble

82'▲B. Downey←▼P. Stanfield

85'▲Z. Sutton←▼N. McDonnell

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

12Belshaw5Anderson7Downey13McIlroy16Hawe17Sutton18McGerrigan19Orpwood20Downey