Lithuania U19 1–2 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Lithuania U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland U19

G. Gineitis 46'

H. Mikaelsson 71'

O. Óskarsson 64' (pen)

10/12/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4ŠC NK Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lithuania U1934%

×Draw28%

Iceland U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lithuania U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.23

Lithuania U19

1.13

Iceland U19

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

0.86

creates per match

1.47

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lithuania U19

0.86

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Lithuania U19

1.00

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lithuania U19 or draw

62%

Lithuania U19 or Iceland U19

72%

Draw or Iceland U19

66%

Winning margin

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

14%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

68%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

31%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

11%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

71%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

35%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U19 attack 0.86 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lithuania U19 scores more

34%

level

28%

Iceland U19 scores more

38%

Iceland U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Gineitis

58'

H. Karlsson← J. Pálsson

64'

O. ÓskarssonPenalty

67'

E. Dzinga← T. Buzas

67'

V. Skibiniauskas← E. Urmonas

70'

H. Mikaelsson← O. Óskarsson

71'

H. Mikaelsson

77'

F. Steponavičius← G. Gineitis

80'

G. Žederštreimas← G. Jarusevičius

80'

E. Jurjonas← G. Nikonovas

89'

A. Sigurpálsson← H. Haraldsson

89'

K. Halldórsson← D. Djuric

Lithuania

Iceland

1

Arinbjör

11

▼

Haraldsso

2

▼

4

5

8

13

7

10

▼

Djuric

9

⚽

▼

3

12

4

11

2

▼

Nikonovas

16

Remeikis

3

▼

Urmonas

9

▼

Jarusevič

20

▼

Buzas

21

⚽

▼

Gineitis

8

Burba

23

Kučys

Manager: T. Ražanauskas

67'▲E. Dzinga←▼T. Buzas

67'▲V. Skibiniauskas←▼E. Urmonas

77'▲F. Steponavičius←▼G. Gineitis

80'▲G. Žederštreimas←▼G. Jarusevičius

80'▲E. Jurjonas←▼G. Nikonovas

Lithuania U19 substitutes

6Dzinga17Skibiniauskas19Steponavičius7Žederštreimas15Jurjonas1Kublickas5Slivka10Keršys13Vilkaitis

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

58'▲H. Karlsson←▼J. Pálsson

70'▲H. Mikaelsson←▼O. Óskarsson

89'▲A. Sigurpálsson←▼H. Haraldsson

89'▲K. Halldórsson←▼D. Djuric

Iceland U19 substitutes

15Karlsson18Mikaelsson19Sigurpálsson16Halldórsson14Hafþórsson17Tyrfingsson20Sigurgeirsson6Jónsson12Ásgeirsson

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Lithuania U19 1–2 Iceland U19

Iceland U19 beat Lithuania U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 12, 2021.

Goals: G. Gineitis (46'), O. Óskarsson (64' pen), H. Mikaelsson (71').

The match was played at ŠC NK Slatina in Radenci.

Lithuania U19 vs Iceland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Lithuania U19 1–2 Iceland U19