Lithuania U19 2–0 France U19: Result & Stats

Lithuania U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

France U19

E. Gudelevičius 6', 3'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Sportpark Marsdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lithuania U1930%

×Draw27%

France U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lithuania U19Expected goals in this matchFrance U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.38

Lithuania U19

1.09

France U19

1.38

France U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

0.86

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Lithuania U19

0.86

France U19

1.75

allows per match

Lithuania U19

1.00

France U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

France U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U19 ↓

France U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lithuania U19 or draw

57%

Lithuania U19 or France U19

73%

Draw or France U19

70%

Winning margin

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

12%

France U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

66%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

30%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

10%

France U19 1+ goals

75%

France U19 2+ goals

40%

France U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

41%

France U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

France U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U19 attack 0.86 + France U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

France U19 attack 1.75 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lithuania U19 scores more

30%

level

27%

France U19 scores more

43%

France U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

6'

9'

12'

33'

E. Gudelevicius

60'

M. Benama← N. Lahmadi

60'

S. Mayulu← S. Ngoura

62'

A. Lickūnas← R. Krot

75'

N. Audinis← J. Usavičius

85'

N. Vosylius← E. Gudelevičius

Lithuania

France

16

2

15

12

6

19

18

▼

Lahmadi

14

Assoumani

11

Michal

10

▼

20

12

14

13

6

16

5

2

10

8

⚽2

▼

Gudelevič

11

▼

Usavičius

19

▼

Krot

Manager: R. Breu

62'▲A. Lickūnas←▼R. Krot

75'▲N. Audinis←▼J. Usavičius

85'▲N. Vosylius←▼E. Gudelevičius

Lithuania U19 substitutes

7Lickūnas4Audinis15Vosylius21Indriulis1Šivickas

Manager: B. Diomède

60'▲M. Benama←▼N. Lahmadi

60'▲S. Mayulu←▼S. Ngoura

France U19 substitutes

7Benama17Mayulu3Mawissa5Belocian1Olmeta13Amougou9Tel8Edoa4Gomis

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Lithuania U19 2–0 France U19

Lithuania U19 beat France U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2024.

Goals: E. Gudelevičius (3', 6').

The match was played at Sportpark Marsdijk in Assen.

Lithuania U19 vs France U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Lithuania U19 2–0 France U19