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Lithuania U19 vs Estonia U19 — Friendlies 2026

Lithuania U19
Lithuania U19
CANC
07:30
Estonia U19
Estonia U19
6/18/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lithuania U1948%
×Draw25%
Estonia U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lithuania U19
1.56
Estonia U19
1.10

Lithuania U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lithuania U19
1.33
Estonia U19
1.20

allows per match

Lithuania U19
1.00
Estonia U19
1.80

finishing

Lithuania U19+0.00on par
Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lithuania U19 or draw
73%
Lithuania U19 or Estonia U19
75%
Draw or Estonia U19
52%

Winning margin

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+
25%
Estonia U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lithuania U19 1+ goals
79%
Lithuania U19 2+ goals
46%
Lithuania U19 3+ goals
21%
Estonia U19 1+ goals
67%
Estonia U19 2+ goals
30%
Estonia U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Estonia U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U19 attack 1.33 + Estonia U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Estonia U19 attack 1.20 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lithuania U19 scores more
48%
level
25%
Estonia U19 scores more
27%

Lithuania U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lithuania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lithuania U19 vs Estonia U19 — Match Preview

Lithuania U19 face Estonia U19 on June 18, 2023 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.