Lithuania U19 0–2 Bulgaria U19: Result & Stats

Lithuania U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bulgaria U19

F. Gigov 55', 29'

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lithuania U1937%

×Draw30%

Bulgaria U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lithuania U19Expected goals in this matchBulgaria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.00

Lithuania U19

1.08

Bulgaria U19

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.86

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Lithuania U19

0.86

Bulgaria U19

1.00

allows per match

Lithuania U19

1.00

Bulgaria U19

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U19 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lithuania U19 or draw

67%

Lithuania U19 or Bulgaria U19

70%

Draw or Bulgaria U19

63%

Winning margin

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

15%

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

66%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

29%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

10%

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

63%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

26%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U19 attack 0.86 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.00 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lithuania U19 scores more

37%

level

30%

Bulgaria U19 scores more

33%

Lithuania U19 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lithuania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

D. Sadetinov

29'

F. Gigov

42'

M. Polendakov

46'

A. Tamaševičius← U. Vaitiekaitis

46'

L. Jonaitis← E. Zdanovič

46'

V. Dotsev← D. Sadetinov

54'

O. Jakas

54'

D. Mihalev← M. Polendakov

55'

F. Gigov

62'

S. Paukštys← N. Pavlovskij

70'

U. Avizovas← M. Latvys

71'

A. Bozhilov← V. Yotov

71'

V. Kazaldzhiev← A. Raychev

75'

O. Jakas

75'

O. Jakas

80'

D. Dikliev← V. Kaymakanov

85'

B. Leipus← J. Jančauskas

Lithuania

Bulgaria

12

Andreev

5

▼

6

15

13

8

▼

Sadetinov

18

Ivanov

19

▼

Yotov

9

⚽2

Gigov

11

▼

Raychev

17

▼

1

4

23

2

▼

Latvys

5

Sasnauska

8

▼

Pavlovski

6

Indriulis

16

Raudonis

10

▼

Vaitiekai

9

▼

Zdanovič

17

▼

Jančauska

Manager: R. Breu

46'▲A. Tamaševičius←▼U. Vaitiekaitis

46'▲L. Jonaitis←▼E. Zdanovič

62'▲S. Paukštys←▼N. Pavlovskij

70'▲U. Avizovas←▼M. Latvys

85'▲B. Leipus←▼J. Jančauskas

Lithuania U19 substitutes

3Tamaševičius19Jonaitis18Paukštys21Avizovas20Leipus7Lickūnas12Aliukonis15Pastori11Krot

Manager: T. Simov

46'▲V. Dotsev←▼D. Sadetinov

54'▲D. Mihalev←▼M. Polendakov

71'▲A. Bozhilov←▼V. Yotov

71'▲V. Kazaldzhiev←▼A. Raychev

80'▲D. Dikliev←▼V. Kaymakanov

Bulgaria U19 substitutes

10Dotsev2Mihalev3Bozhilov16Kazaldzhiev20Dikliev1Kehayov14Martinov7Dimitrov4Lyubenov