Lithuania U19 2–0 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Lithuania U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belarus U19

11/21/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi 2 Nolu Saha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lithuania U1948%

×Draw27%

Belarus U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lithuania U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.94

Lithuania U19

1.43

Belarus U19

0.94

Lithuania U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

0.88

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lithuania U19

0.86

Belarus U19

0.88

allows per match

Lithuania U19

1.00

Belarus U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lithuania U19 or draw

75%

Lithuania U19 or Belarus U19

73%

Draw or Belarus U19

52%

Winning margin

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

24%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

76%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

42%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

17%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

61%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

24%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U19 attack 0.86 + Belarus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Belarus U19 attack 0.88 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lithuania U19 scores more

48%

level

27%

Belarus U19 scores more

25%

Lithuania U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lithuania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lithuania U19 vs Belarus U19

Lithuania U19 beat Belarus U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 21, 2023.

The match was played at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi 2 Nolu Saha in Side.

Lithuania U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lithuania U19 vs Belarus U19