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Litex vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Litex
Litex
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
8/25/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Litex44%
×Draw30%
Yantra 201926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Litex
1.21
Yantra 2019
0.86

Litex creates 41% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 100 away

creates per match

Litex
1.21
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Litex
0.78
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Litex+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Litex or draw
74%
Litex or Yantra 2019
70%
Draw or Yantra 2019
56%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+
19%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals
70%
Litex 2+ goals
34%
Litex 3+ goals
12%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
58%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
21%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)
63%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Litex scores more
44%
level
30%
Yantra 2019 scores more
26%

Litex at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Litex vs Yantra 2019

Yantra 2019 beat Litex 1-0 in Second League on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Lovech.