Litex 0–0 Ludogorets II: Result & Stats

Litex

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ludogorets II

8/28/2023

Second League · Round 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Litex47%

×Draw28%

Ludogorets II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LitexExpected goals in this matchLudogorets II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.85

Litex

1.31

Ludogorets II

0.85

Litex creates 54% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 131 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

0.78

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Litex

1.21

Ludogorets II

0.93

allows per match

Litex

0.78

Ludogorets II

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Litex+0.00on par

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Ludogorets II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Litex or draw

76%

Litex or Ludogorets II

72%

Draw or Ludogorets II

53%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+

22%

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals

73%

Litex 2+ goals

38%

Litex 3+ goals

14%

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

57%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

21%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)

66%

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Ludogorets II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ludogorets II attack 0.93 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Litex scores more

47%

level

28%

Ludogorets II scores more

24%

Litex at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff