Litex 0–0 Levski Krumovgrad: Result & Stats

Litex

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levski Krumovgrad

8/29/2022

Second League · Round 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Litex41%

×Draw29%

Levski Krumovgrad30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LitexExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.98

Litex

1.19

Levski Krumovgrad

0.98

Litex creates 21% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

1.21

creates per match

1.18

0.78

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Litex

1.21

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

allows per match

Litex

0.78

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Litex+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Litex or draw

70%

Litex or Levski Krumovgrad

71%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

59%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+

18%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals

70%

Litex 2+ goals

33%

Litex 3+ goals

12%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

62%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

26%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)

57%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Litex scores more

41%

level

29%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

30%

Litex at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

25'

72'

73'

75'

77'

I. Penev← G. Georgiev

79'

G. Trifonov← M. Tonev

88'

M. Durmush← E. Ignatov

88'

A. Stoimenov← Henrique Devens

90'

S. Kosov

90+1'

O. Yusein← K. Stefanov

Litex

Levski

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Andreev

72'▲Y. Lozanov←▼A. Matić

77'▲I. Penev←▼G. Georgiev

88'▲M. Durmush←▼E. Ignatov

Litex substitutes

LozanovPenevDurmushGeorgievDermendzhievNankovMladenov

Manager: A. Vavalis

79'▲G. Trifonov←▼M. Tonev

88'▲A. Stoimenov←▼Henrique Devens

90+1'▲O. Yusein←▼K. Stefanov

Levski Krumovgrad substitutes

TrifonovStoimenovYuseinOsmanPehlivanovSulev

Second League: Litex 0–0 Levski Krumovgrad

Litex and Levski Krumovgrad drew 0-0 in Second League on August 29, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Lovech.

Litex vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Litex 0–0 Levski Krumovgrad