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Litex vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Litex
Litex
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
10/27/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Litex45%
×Draw28%
Kariana Erden27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Litex
1.31
Kariana Erden
0.94

Litex creates 39% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 32 away

creates per match

Litex
1.21
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

Litex
0.78
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

Litex+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Litex or draw
73%
Litex or Kariana Erden
72%
Draw or Kariana Erden
55%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+
21%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals
73%
Litex 2+ goals
38%
Litex 3+ goals
14%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
61%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
24%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)
63%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Litex scores more
45%
level
28%
Kariana Erden scores more
27%

Litex at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Litex vs Kariana Erden

Kariana Erden beat Litex 2-1 in Second League on October 27, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Lovech.