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Líšeň II vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Líšeň II
Líšeň II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
3/9/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 16SK Líšeň UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Líšeň II61%
×Draw21%
Ždírec nad Doubravou18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Líšeň II
2.08
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.04

Líšeň II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

creates per match

Líšeň II
2.38
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.95

allows per match

Líšeň II
1.13
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.77

finishing

Líšeň II+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Líšeň II ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Líšeň II or draw
82%
Líšeň II or Ždírec nad Doubravou
79%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
39%

Winning margin

Líšeň II wins by 2+
38%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Líšeň II 1+ goals
87%
Líšeň II 2+ goals
61%
Líšeň II 3+ goals
34%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
65%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
28%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Líšeň II (draw refunded)
77%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Líšeň II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Líšeň II attack 2.38 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Líšeň II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Líšeň II scores more
61%
level
21%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
18%

Líšeň II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Líšeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Líšeň II 2–0 Ždírec nad Doubravou

Líšeň II beat Ždírec nad Doubravou 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at SK Líšeň UMT in Brno.