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Líšeň II vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Líšeň II
Líšeň II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
10/15/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 11SK Líšeň UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Líšeň II73%
×Draw15%
Slavoj Polná12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Líšeň II
2.79
Slavoj Polná
1.04

Líšeň II creates 168% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 54 away

creates per match

Líšeň II
2.38
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Líšeň II
1.13
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Líšeň II+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Líšeň II ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Líšeň II or draw
88%
Líšeň II or Slavoj Polná
85%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
27%

Winning margin

Líšeň II wins by 2+
52%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Líšeň II 1+ goals
94%
Líšeň II 2+ goals
76%
Líšeň II 3+ goals
52%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
65%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
28%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Líšeň II (draw refunded)
86%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Líšeň II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Líšeň II attack 2.38 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.79

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Líšeň II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Líšeň II scores more
73%
level
15%
Slavoj Polná scores more
12%

Líšeň II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Líšeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Líšeň II vs Slavoj Polná

Líšeň II beat Slavoj Polná 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at SK Líšeň UMT in Brno.