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LISCR vs Small Town — LFA First Division 2020

LISCR
LISCR
FT
3 – 0
Small Town
Small Town
11/22/2020LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 4Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

LISCR66%
×Draw18%
Small Town16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LISCR
2.43
Small Town
1.11

LISCR creates 119% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 11 away

creates per match

LISCR
1.86
Small Town
1.09

allows per match

LISCR
1.13
Small Town
3.00

finishing

LISCR+0.00on par
Small Town+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LISCR ↓

Small Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

LISCR or draw
84%
LISCR or Small Town
82%
Draw or Small Town
34%

Winning margin

LISCR wins by 2+
44%
Small Town wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LISCR 1+ goals
91%
LISCR 2+ goals
69%
LISCR 3+ goals
43%
Small Town 1+ goals
67%
Small Town 2+ goals
30%
Small Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

LISCR (draw refunded)
81%
Small Town (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LISCR at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Small Town away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LISCR attack 1.86 + Small Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Small Town attack 1.09 + LISCR defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

LISCR scores more
66%
level
18%
Small Town scores more
16%

LISCR at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LISCR vs Small Town

LISCR beat Small Town 3-0 in LFA First Division on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.