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LISCR vs Shaita — LFA First Division 2020

LISCR
LISCR
FT
6 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Shaita
Shaita
3/7/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 21TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LISCR51%
×Draw22%
Shaita27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LISCR
1.97
Shaita
1.38

LISCR creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 13 away

creates per match

LISCR
1.86
Shaita
1.62

allows per match

LISCR
1.13
Shaita
2.08

finishing

LISCR+0.00on par
Shaita+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LISCR ↓

Shaita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

LISCR or draw
73%
LISCR or Shaita
78%
Draw or Shaita
49%

Winning margin

LISCR wins by 2+
29%
Shaita wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LISCR 1+ goals
86%
LISCR 2+ goals
58%
LISCR 3+ goals
31%
Shaita 1+ goals
75%
Shaita 2+ goals
40%
Shaita 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

LISCR (draw refunded)
65%
Shaita (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LISCR at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Shaita away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LISCR attack 1.86 + Shaita defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.97

Shaita attack 1.62 + LISCR defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LISCR scores more
51%
level
22%
Shaita scores more
27%

LISCR at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LISCR 6 – 1 Shaita

LISCR beat Shaita 6-1 in LFA First Division on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.