Lisburn Rangers W 0–2 Cliftonville W

Lisburn Rangers W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cliftonville W

C. Devine 70'

T. Lynch 33'

8/15/2025

Premiership Women · Round 11Crewe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lisburn Rangers W15%

×Draw16%

Cliftonville W70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn Rangers WExpected goals in this matchCliftonville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.95

Lisburn Rangers W

1.33

Cliftonville W

2.95

Cliftonville W creates 122% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

2.38

creates per match

3.65

2.25

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Lisburn Rangers W

2.38

Cliftonville W

3.65

allows per match

Lisburn Rangers W

2.25

Cliftonville W

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Cliftonville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Rangers W ↓

Cliftonville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Lisburn Rangers W or draw

30%

Lisburn Rangers W or Cliftonville W

84%

Draw or Cliftonville W

85%

Winning margin

Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+

6%

Cliftonville W wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals

74%

Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals

38%

Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals

15%

Cliftonville W 1+ goals

95%

Cliftonville W 2+ goals

79%

Cliftonville W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)

18%

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Rangers W at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Cliftonville W away — creates 3.65, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.38 + Cliftonville W defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cliftonville W attack 3.65 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lisburn Rangers W scores more

15%

level

16%

Cliftonville W scores more

70%

Cliftonville W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

T. Lynch

70'

C. Devine

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff