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Lisburn Ladies W vs Linfield W — Premiership Women 2026

Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Linfield W
Linfield W
E. Reilly 75', 49'
R. Bassett 73'
H. Doherty 43', 32'
C. Chambers 19'
8/15/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 11The Bluebell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lisburn Ladies W5%
×Draw9%
Linfield W86%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Ladies W
0.78
Linfield W
3.54

Linfield W creates 354% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lisburn Ladies W
0.57
Linfield W
4.43

allows per match

Lisburn Ladies W
2.64
Linfield W
1.00

finishing

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par
Linfield W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Ladies W ↓

Linfield W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lisburn Ladies W or draw
14%
Lisburn Ladies W or Linfield W
91%
Draw or Linfield W
95%

Winning margin

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
1%
Linfield W wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
54%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
18%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
4%
Linfield W 1+ goals
97%
Linfield W 2+ goals
86%
Linfield W 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
5%
Linfield W (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Ladies W at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

Linfield W away — creates 4.43, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.57 + Linfield W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Linfield W attack 4.43 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 3.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Lisburn Ladies W scores more
5%
level
9%
Linfield W scores more
86%

Linfield W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
C. Chambers
32'
H. Doherty
43'
H. Doherty
49'
E. Reilly
73'
R. Bassett
75'
E. Reilly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Lisburn Ladies W 0–6 Linfield W

Linfield W beat Lisburn Ladies W 6-0 in Premiership Women on August 15, 2025.

Goals: C. Chambers (19'), H. Doherty (32', 43'), E. Reilly (49', 75'), R. Bassett (73').

The match was played at The Bluebell Stadium in Lisburn.