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Lisburn Ladies W vs Larne W — Premiership Women 2026

Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Larne W
Larne W
Z. Rodgers 3'
M. Quinn 60'
5/8/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lisburn Ladies W54%
×Draw20%
Larne W27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Ladies W
2.39
Larne W
1.66

Lisburn Ladies W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lisburn Ladies W
0.57
Larne W
0.67

allows per match

Lisburn Ladies W
2.64
Larne W
4.20

finishing

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par
Larne W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Ladies W ↓

Larne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Lisburn Ladies W or draw
73%
Lisburn Ladies W or Larne W
80%
Draw or Larne W
46%

Winning margin

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
33%
Larne W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
91%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
69%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
42%
Larne W 1+ goals
81%
Larne W 2+ goals
49%
Larne W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
67%
Larne W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Ladies W at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

Larne W away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.57 + Larne W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.39

Larne W attack 0.67 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lisburn Ladies W scores more
54%
level
20%
Larne W scores more
27%

Lisburn Ladies W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lisburn Ladies W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Z. Rodgers
60'
M. Quinn

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lisburn Ladies W vs Larne W

Lisburn Ladies W and Larne W drew 1-1 in Premiership Women on May 8, 2026.

Goals: Z. Rodgers (3'), M. Quinn (60').