Lisburn Ladies W 1–1 Derry City W: Result & Stats

Lisburn Ladies W

FT

1 – 1

Derry City W

7/26/2024

Premiership Women · Round 9The Bluebell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lisburn Ladies W32%

×Draw21%

Derry City W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn Ladies WExpected goals in this matchDerry City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.10

Lisburn Ladies W

1.73

Derry City W

2.10

Derry City W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

0.68

creates per match

1.57

2.64

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Lisburn Ladies W

0.68

Derry City W

1.57

allows per match

Lisburn Ladies W

2.64

Derry City W

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Ladies W ↓

Derry City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Lisburn Ladies W or draw

53%

Lisburn Ladies W or Derry City W

79%

Draw or Derry City W

68%

Winning margin

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

16%

Derry City W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

82%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

52%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

25%

Derry City W 1+ goals

88%

Derry City W 2+ goals

62%

Derry City W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

41%

Derry City W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Ladies W at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.64 · 22 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.68 + Derry City W defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Derry City W attack 1.57 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

32%

level

21%

Derry City W scores more

47%

Derry City W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff