Derry City W 1–3 Lisburn Ladies W: Result & Stats

Derry City W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Lisburn Ladies W

Unknown 41'

S. Younes Alsaidi 90'

E. Parker 43'

J. Hall 20' (pen)

9/26/2025

Premiership Women · Relegation Round - 1The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Derry City W51%

×Draw20%

Lisburn Ladies W29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry City WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Ladies W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.79

Derry City W

2.41

Lisburn Ladies W

1.79

Derry City W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

0.95

2.64

allows per match

3.68

creates per match

Derry City W

1.14

Lisburn Ladies W

0.95

allows per match

Derry City W

2.64

Lisburn Ladies W

3.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw

71%

Derry City W or Lisburn Ladies W

80%

Draw or Lisburn Ladies W

49%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+

32%

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals

91%

Derry City W 2+ goals

69%

Derry City W 3+ goals

43%

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

83%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

53%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)

64%

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.14 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.68 → ÷2 → 2.41

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.95 + Derry City W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Derry City W scores more

51%

level

20%

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

29%

Derry City W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. HallPenalty

41'

43'

E. Parker

90'

S. Younes Alsaidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff