Lisburn Ladies W 1–7 Cliftonville W: Result & Stats

Lisburn Ladies W

FT

1 – 7

Cliftonville W

6/21/2024

Premiership Women · Round 6The Bluebell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lisburn Ladies W3%

×Draw9%

Cliftonville W88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn Ladies WExpected goals in this matchCliftonville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.48

3.15

Lisburn Ladies W

0.48

Cliftonville W

3.15

Cliftonville W creates 556% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

0.68

creates per match

3.65

2.64

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Lisburn Ladies W

0.68

Cliftonville W

3.65

allows per match

Lisburn Ladies W

2.64

Cliftonville W

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Cliftonville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Ladies W ↓

Cliftonville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–214%

0–314%

0–411%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lisburn Ladies W or draw

12%

Lisburn Ladies W or Cliftonville W

91%

Draw or Cliftonville W

97%

Winning margin

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

1%

Cliftonville W wins by 2+

71%

Team goals

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

38%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

8%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

1%

Cliftonville W 1+ goals

96%

Cliftonville W 2+ goals

81%

Cliftonville W 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

4%

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Ladies W at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.64 · 22 matches

Cliftonville W away — creates 3.65, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.68 + Cliftonville W defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.48

Cliftonville W attack 3.65 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

3%

level

9%

Cliftonville W scores more

88%

Cliftonville W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff