Cliftonville W 6–0 Lisburn Ladies W: Result & Stats

Cliftonville W

FT

6 – 0

Lisburn Ladies W

9/20/2024

Premiership Women · Round 15Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cliftonville W87%

×Draw8%

Lisburn Ladies W5%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cliftonville WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Ladies W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.84

0.85

Cliftonville W

3.84

Lisburn Ladies W

0.85

Cliftonville W creates 352% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

4.00

creates per match

0.95

0.76

allows per match

3.68

creates per match

Cliftonville W

4.00

Lisburn Ladies W

0.95

allows per match

Cliftonville W

0.76

Lisburn Ladies W

3.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cliftonville W+0.00on par

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Cliftonville W or draw

95%

Cliftonville W or Lisburn Ladies W

92%

Draw or Lisburn Ladies W

13%

Winning margin

Cliftonville W wins by 2+

72%

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Cliftonville W 1+ goals

98%

Cliftonville W 2+ goals

89%

Cliftonville W 3+ goals

71%

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

57%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

21%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)

95%

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville W attack 4.00 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.68 → ÷2 → 3.84

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.95 + Cliftonville W defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Cliftonville W scores more

87%

level

8%

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

5%

Cliftonville W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff