Lisburn Distillery 2–1 Tobermore United

Lisburn Distillery

FT

2 – 1

Tobermore United

4/13/2024

League #561 · Round 24New Grosvenor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lisburn Distillery49%

×Draw23%

Tobermore United28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn DistilleryExpected goals in this matchTobermore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.29

Lisburn Distillery

1.77

Tobermore United

1.29

Lisburn Distillery creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

0.94

1.65

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Lisburn Distillery

1.12

Tobermore United

0.94

allows per match

Lisburn Distillery

1.65

Tobermore United

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Tobermore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Distillery ↓

Tobermore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lisburn Distillery or draw

72%

Lisburn Distillery or Tobermore United

77%

Draw or Tobermore United

51%

Winning margin

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+

26%

Tobermore United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals

83%

Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals

53%

Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals

26%

Tobermore United 1+ goals

72%

Tobermore United 2+ goals

37%

Tobermore United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)

63%

Tobermore United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Distillery at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Tobermore United away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.12 + Tobermore United defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tobermore United attack 0.94 + Lisburn Distillery defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lisburn Distillery scores more

49%

level

23%

Tobermore United scores more

28%

Lisburn Distillery at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lisburn Distillery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff