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Liry vs RPS Lions — Suomen Cup 2018

Liry
Liry
FT
1 – 0
RPS Lions
RPS Lions
3/10/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liry20%
×Draw20%
RPS Lions60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liry
1.25
RPS Lions
2.25

RPS Lions creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Liry
1.00
RPS Lions
1.50

allows per match

Liry
3.00
RPS Lions
1.50

finishing

Liry+0.00on par
RPS Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liry ↓

RPS Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Liry or draw
40%
Liry or RPS Lions
80%
Draw or RPS Lions
80%

Winning margin

Liry wins by 2+
8%
RPS Lions wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Liry 1+ goals
71%
Liry 2+ goals
36%
Liry 3+ goals
13%
RPS Lions 1+ goals
89%
RPS Lions 2+ goals
65%
RPS Lions 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Liry (draw refunded)
26%
RPS Lions (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liry at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

RPS Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liry attack 1.00 + RPS Lions defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

RPS Lions attack 1.50 + Liry defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Liry scores more
20%
level
20%
RPS Lions scores more
60%

RPS Lions at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "RPS Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liry 1 – 0 RPS Lions

Liry beat RPS Lions 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.