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Liry vs IPS Edustus — Suomen Cup 2018

Liry
Liry
FT
2 – 3
IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liry9%
×Draw11%
IPS Edustus80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liry
1.31
IPS Edustus
3.88

IPS Edustus creates 196% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Liry
1.00
IPS Edustus
4.75

allows per match

Liry
3.00
IPS Edustus
1.63

finishing

Liry+0.00on par
IPS Edustus+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liry ↓

IPS Edustus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Liry or draw
20%
Liry or IPS Edustus
89%
Draw or IPS Edustus
91%

Winning margin

Liry wins by 2+
3%
IPS Edustus wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Liry 1+ goals
73%
Liry 2+ goals
38%
Liry 3+ goals
14%
IPS Edustus 1+ goals
98%
IPS Edustus 2+ goals
89%
IPS Edustus 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Liry (draw refunded)
10%
IPS Edustus (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liry at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

IPS Edustus away — creates 4.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liry attack 1.00 + IPS Edustus defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

IPS Edustus attack 4.75 + Liry defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Liry scores more
9%
level
11%
IPS Edustus scores more
80%

IPS Edustus at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "IPS Edustus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liry vs IPS Edustus

IPS Edustus beat Liry 3-2 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.