Liptovský Mikuláš 2–0 Poprad: Result & Stats

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Poprad

5/1/2021

2. liga · Round 27Štadión Liptovský Mikuláš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš62%

×Draw21%

Poprad17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchPoprad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.94

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.00

Poprad

0.94

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 113% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

1.85

creates per match

0.77

1.10

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.85

Poprad

0.77

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.10

Poprad

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Poprad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Poprad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

83%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Poprad

79%

Draw or Poprad

38%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

38%

Poprad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

86%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

59%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

32%

Poprad 1+ goals

61%

Poprad 2+ goals

24%

Poprad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

78%

Poprad (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Poprad away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.85 + Poprad defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Poprad attack 0.77 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

62%

level

21%

Poprad scores more

17%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff