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Liptovský Mikuláš vs Komárno — 2. liga 2019

Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Komárno
Komárno
3/6/20212. liga2. liga · Round 19Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš49%
×Draw24%
Komárno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.68
Komárno
1.19

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 41% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 71 away

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.85
Komárno
1.27

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.10
Komárno
1.51

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par
Komárno+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Komárno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw
73%
Liptovský Mikuláš or Komárno
76%
Draw or Komárno
51%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
26%
Komárno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
81%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
50%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
24%
Komárno 1+ goals
70%
Komárno 2+ goals
33%
Komárno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
64%
Komárno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Komárno away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.51 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.85 + Komárno defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Komárno attack 1.27 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
49%
level
24%
Komárno scores more
27%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Liptovský Mikuláš 1–1 Komárno

Liptovský Mikuláš and Komárno drew 1-1 in 2. liga on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.