Liptovský Mikuláš 2–1 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dolný Kubín

F. Appiah 31', 16'

João Guimarães 45'

5/3/2024

2. liga · Round 28Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš68%

×Draw19%

Dolný Kubín14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.90

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.26

Dolný Kubín

0.90

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 151% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

1.96

creates per match

0.70

1.10

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.96

Dolný Kubín

0.70

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.10

Dolný Kubín

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

86%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Dolný Kubín

81%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

32%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

44%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

89%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

66%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

39%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

59%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

23%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

83%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.96 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.26

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

68%

level

19%

Dolný Kubín scores more

14%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

F. Appiah

30'

S. Farsky

31'

F. Appiah

40'

J. Teplan

45'

João Guimarães

58'

R. Bartoš← A. Macejko

68'

I. Kamladze

73'

Ľ. Laura← D. Laktionov

73'

F. Mráz← T. Staš

83'

P. Voško← T. Gerát

83'

S. Kuchárik← V. Trabalík

90'

L. Laura

90'

J. Strapec← S. Brnča

Liptovský

Dolný

1

18

3

7

15

⚽

10

8

6

9

▼

11

14

1

3

24

14

8

▼

Gerát

11

▼

Staš

23

▼

Macejko

20

⚽2

Appiah

22

Teplan

17

▼

Trabalík

26

▼

Laktionov

Manager: I. Lišivka

58'▲R. Bartoš←▼A. Macejko

73'▲Ľ. Laura←▼D. Laktionov

73'▲F. Mráz←▼T. Staš

83'▲P. Voško←▼T. Gerát

83'▲S. Kuchárik←▼V. Trabalík

Liptovský Mikuláš substitutes

10Bartoš19Laura12Mráz9Voško21Kuchárik6Krajčí18Mazanovský33Lehotský72Vajs

Manager: R. Korytář

90'▲J. Strapec←▼S. Brnča

Dolný Kubín substitutes

12Strapec20Lukac13Osadský17Zubaj