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Liptovský Hrádok vs Námestovo — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
CANC
14:00
Námestovo
Námestovo
4/25/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 20Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok31%
×Draw23%
Námestovo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
1.42
Námestovo
1.75

Námestovo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Námestovo
2.10

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Námestovo
1.15

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Námestovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Námestovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
55%
Liptovský Hrádok or Námestovo
77%
Draw or Námestovo
69%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
14%
Námestovo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
76%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
41%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
17%
Námestovo 1+ goals
83%
Námestovo 2+ goals
52%
Námestovo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
41%
Námestovo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Námestovo away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Námestovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

Námestovo attack 2.10 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
31%
level
23%
Námestovo scores more
45%

Námestovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liptovský Hrádok face Námestovo (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center returns with Liptovský Hrádok hosting Námestovo. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Liptovský Hrádok host Námestovo at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.