Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Liptovský Hrádok vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
CANC
14:30
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
5/9/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 22Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok40%
×Draw24%
Fomat Martin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
1.54
Fomat Martin
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Fomat Martin
1.46

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Fomat Martin
1.37

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
65%
Liptovský Hrádok or Fomat Martin
76%
Draw or Fomat Martin
60%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
20%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
79%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
45%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
20%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
76%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
41%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
53%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Fomat Martin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fomat Martin attack 1.46 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
40%
level
24%
Fomat Martin scores more
35%

Liptovský Hrádok at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liptovský Hrádok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Liptovský Hrádok host Fomat Martin

May 9, 2021: Liptovský Hrádok take on Fomat Martin in 3. liga - Center. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Liptovský Hrádok host Fomat Martin at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.