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Liptovský Hrádok vs Fiľakovo — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
FT
3 – 0
Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
9/20/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 8Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok47%
×Draw24%
Fiľakovo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
1.65
Fiľakovo
1.25

Liptovský Hrádok creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Fiľakovo
1.11

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Fiľakovo
1.60

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Fiľakovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Fiľakovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
71%
Liptovský Hrádok or Fiľakovo
76%
Draw or Fiľakovo
53%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
24%
Fiľakovo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
81%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
49%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
23%
Fiľakovo 1+ goals
71%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
36%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
62%
Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Fiľakovo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Fiľakovo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fiľakovo attack 1.11 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
47%
level
24%
Fiľakovo scores more
29%

Liptovský Hrádok at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Liptovský Hrádok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liptovský Hrádok vs Fiľakovo

Liptovský Hrádok beat Fiľakovo 3-0 in 3. liga - Center on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok in Liptovský Hrádok.