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Liptovský Hrádok vs Dolný Kubín — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
FT
3 – 2
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
9/15/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 15Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok43%
×Draw22%
Dolný Kubín35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
1.88
Dolný Kubín
1.67

Liptovský Hrádok creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Dolný Kubín
1.96

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Dolný Kubín
2.07

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
65%
Liptovský Hrádok or Dolný Kubín
78%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
57%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
23%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
85%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
56%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
29%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
81%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
50%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
55%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Dolný Kubín attack 1.96 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
43%
level
22%
Dolný Kubín scores more
35%

Liptovský Hrádok at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Liptovský Hrádok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liptovský Hrádok vs Dolný Kubín

Liptovský Hrádok beat Dolný Kubín 3-2 in 3. liga - Center on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok in Liptovský Hrádok.