Liptovská Štiavnica 0–0 Rimavská Sobota

Liptovská Štiavnica

FT

0 – 0

Rimavská Sobota

10/10/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 11Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica52%

×Draw21%

Rimavská Sobota28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovská ŠtiavnicaExpected goals in this matchRimavská Sobota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.58

Liptovská Štiavnica

2.21

Rimavská Sobota

1.58

Liptovská Štiavnica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

1.82

creates per match

1.29

1.86

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.82

Rimavská Sobota

1.29

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.86

Rimavská Sobota

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Rimavská Sobota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw

72%

Liptovská Štiavnica or Rimavská Sobota

79%

Draw or Rimavská Sobota

48%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+

31%

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals

89%

Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals

65%

Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals

38%

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

79%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

47%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)

65%

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Rimavská Sobota away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Rimavská Sobota defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.21

Rimavská Sobota attack 1.29 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more

52%

level

21%

Rimavská Sobota scores more

28%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff