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Liptovská Štiavnica vs Dolný Kubín — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
FT
1 – 3
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
8/21/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 4Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica40%
×Draw21%
Dolný Kubín39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.94
Dolný Kubín
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.82
Dolný Kubín
1.96

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.86
Dolný Kubín
2.07

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw
61%
Liptovská Štiavnica or Dolný Kubín
79%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
60%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
22%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
86%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
58%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
30%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
85%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
57%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
51%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dolný Kubín attack 1.96 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
40%
level
21%
Dolný Kubín scores more
39%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liptovská Štiavnica vs Dolný Kubín

Dolný Kubín beat Liptovská Štiavnica 3-1 in 3. liga - Center on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica in Liptovská Štiavnica.