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Liphakoe vs Machokha — League #962 2026

Liphakoe
Liphakoe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Machokha
Machokha
Boateng 55'
Montoeli 54'
9/13/2025League #962League #962 · Round 1Ratjomose Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Liphakoe25%
×Draw26%
Machokha49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liphakoe
1.00
Machokha
1.50

Machokha creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Liphakoe
1.00
Machokha
1.50

allows per match

Liphakoe
1.50
Machokha
1.00

finishing

Liphakoe+0.00on par
Machokha+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liphakoe ↓

Machokha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Liphakoe or draw
51%
Liphakoe or Machokha
74%
Draw or Machokha
75%

Winning margin

Liphakoe wins by 2+
9%
Machokha wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Liphakoe 1+ goals
63%
Liphakoe 2+ goals
26%
Liphakoe 3+ goals
8%
Machokha 1+ goals
78%
Machokha 2+ goals
44%
Machokha 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Liphakoe (draw refunded)
34%
Machokha (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liphakoe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Machokha away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liphakoe attack 1.00 + Machokha defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Machokha attack 1.50 + Liphakoe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liphakoe scores more
25%
level
26%
Machokha scores more
49%

Machokha at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Machokha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
Montoeli
55'
Boateng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #962: Liphakoe 0–2 Machokha

Machokha beat Liphakoe 2-0 in League #962 on September 13, 2025.

Goals: Montoeli (54'), Boateng (55').

The match was played at Ratjomose Stadium in Maseru.