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Lipany vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Lipany
Lipany
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
5/17/20253. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 28Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Lipany63%
×Draw20%
Vranov nad Topľou17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lipany
2.12
Vranov nad Topľou
1.00

Lipany creates 112% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 81 away

creates per match

Lipany
2.76
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Lipany
0.87
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lipany or draw
83%
Lipany or Vranov nad Topľou
80%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
37%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+
39%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals
88%
Lipany 2+ goals
62%
Lipany 3+ goals
35%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
63%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
26%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)
79%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.12

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lipany scores more
63%
level
20%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
17%

Lipany at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Lipany 1–0 Vranov nad Topľou

Lipany beat Vranov nad Topľou 1-0 in 3. liga - East on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lipany.