Lipany 1–3 Stará Ľubovňa: Result & Stats

Lipany

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stará Ľubovňa

8/5/2023

3. liga - East · East - 1Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lipany61%

×Draw20%

Stará Ľubovňa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LipanyExpected goals in this matchStará Ľubovňa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.19

Lipany

2.27

Stará Ľubovňa

1.19

Lipany creates 91% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 14 away

2.76

creates per match

1.50

0.87

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Lipany

2.76

Stará Ľubovňa

1.50

allows per match

Lipany

0.87

Stará Ľubovňa

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par

Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Stará Ľubovňa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Lipany or draw

81%

Lipany or Stará Ľubovňa

80%

Draw or Stará Ľubovňa

39%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+

39%

Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals

90%

Lipany 2+ goals

66%

Lipany 3+ goals

39%

Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals

70%

Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals

33%

Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)

76%

Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Stará Ľubovňa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.27

Stará Ľubovňa attack 1.50 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lipany scores more

61%

level

20%

Stará Ľubovňa scores more

19%

Lipany at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff