Lipany 7–1 Rudňany: Result & Stats | 3. liga - East

Lipany

FT

7 – 1

Rudňany

8/7/2021

3. liga - East · East - 3Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lipany81%

×Draw11%

Rudňany8%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LipanyExpected goals in this matchRudňany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.38

1.00

Lipany

3.38

Rudňany

1.00

Lipany creates 238% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

2.76

creates per match

1.13

0.87

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Lipany

2.76

Rudňany

1.13

allows per match

Lipany

0.87

Rudňany

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par

Rudňany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Rudňany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Lipany or draw

92%

Lipany or Rudňany

89%

Draw or Rudňany

19%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+

63%

Rudňany wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals

96%

Lipany 2+ goals

84%

Lipany 3+ goals

64%

Rudňany 1+ goals

63%

Rudňany 2+ goals

26%

Rudňany 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)

91%

Rudňany (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Rudňany away — creates 1.13, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Rudňany defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.38

Rudňany attack 1.13 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Lipany scores more

81%

level

11%

Rudňany scores more

8%

Lipany at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff