Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lipany vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Lipany
Lipany
CANC
15:00
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
5/23/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lipany84%
×Draw11%
Pokrok Krompachy6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lipany
3.21
Pokrok Krompachy
0.74

Lipany creates 334% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lipany
2.76
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Lipany
0.87
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lipany or draw
94%
Lipany or Pokrok Krompachy
89%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
16%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+
66%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals
96%
Lipany 2+ goals
82%
Lipany 3+ goals
60%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
52%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
17%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)
94%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.21

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Lipany scores more
84%
level
11%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
6%

Lipany at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lipany face Pokrok Krompachy (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Lipany hosting Pokrok Krompachy. Match starts May 23, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.