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Lipany vs Námestovo — 3. liga - East 2020

Lipany
Lipany
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Námestovo
Námestovo
4/13/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 22Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lipany74%
×Draw16%
Námestovo11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lipany
2.59
Námestovo
0.88

Lipany creates 194% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lipany
2.76
Námestovo
0.89

allows per match

Lipany
0.87
Námestovo
2.43

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par
Námestovo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Námestovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lipany or draw
89%
Lipany or Námestovo
84%
Draw or Námestovo
26%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+
52%
Námestovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals
92%
Lipany 2+ goals
73%
Lipany 3+ goals
47%
Námestovo 1+ goals
59%
Námestovo 2+ goals
22%
Námestovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)
87%
Námestovo (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Námestovo away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Námestovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.59

Námestovo attack 0.89 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Lipany scores more
74%
level
16%
Námestovo scores more
11%

Lipany at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Lipany 2–1 Námestovo

Lipany beat Námestovo 2-1 in 3. liga - East on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lipany.