Lipany 3–0 Mladosť Kalša: Result & Stats

Lipany

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Mladosť Kalša

4/23/2022

3. liga - East · East - 22Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lipany67%

×Draw16%

Mladosť Kalša16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LipanyExpected goals in this matchMladosť Kalša

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.34

Lipany

2.81

Mladosť Kalša

1.34

Lipany creates 110% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 22 away

2.76

creates per match

1.82

0.87

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Lipany

2.76

Mladosť Kalša

1.82

allows per match

Lipany

0.87

Mladosť Kalša

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Mladosť Kalša →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Lipany or draw

84%

Lipany or Mladosť Kalša

84%

Draw or Mladosť Kalša

33%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+

47%

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals

94%

Lipany 2+ goals

76%

Lipany 3+ goals

52%

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals

74%

Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals

39%

Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)

81%

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.81

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Lipany scores more

67%

level

16%

Mladosť Kalša scores more

16%

Lipany at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff