Lions 0–4 Ulaanbaatar City: Result & Stats

Lions

FT

0 – 4

Ulaanbaatar City

8/1/2021

Premier League · Round 1Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lions20%

×Draw18%

Ulaanbaatar City62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LionsExpected goals in this matchUlaanbaatar City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.77

Lions

1.57

Ulaanbaatar City

2.77

Ulaanbaatar City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 55 away

1.39

creates per match

2.31

3.22

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lions

1.39

Ulaanbaatar City

2.31

allows per match

Lions

3.22

Ulaanbaatar City

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lions+0.00on par

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Lions or draw

38%

Lions or Ulaanbaatar City

82%

Draw or Ulaanbaatar City

80%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+

9%

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals

79%

Lions 2+ goals

46%

Lions 3+ goals

21%

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals

94%

Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals

76%

Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)

25%

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 1.39, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 1.39 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + Lions defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lions scores more

20%

level

18%

Ulaanbaatar City scores more

62%

Ulaanbaatar City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff