Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lions vs Olympic — Queensland NPL 2026

Lions
Lions
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Olympic
Olympic
6/8/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 14Lions FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Lions52%
×Draw20%
Olympic27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lions
2.23
Olympic
1.58

Lions creates 41% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 103 away

creates per match

Lions
2.85
Olympic
2.01

allows per match

Lions
1.15
Olympic
1.60

finishing

Lions+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lions or draw
73%
Lions or Olympic
80%
Draw or Olympic
48%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+
31%
Olympic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals
89%
Lions 2+ goals
65%
Lions 3+ goals
38%
Olympic 1+ goals
79%
Olympic 2+ goals
47%
Olympic 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)
66%
Olympic (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Olympic away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 2.85 + Olympic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Olympic attack 2.01 + Lions defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lions scores more
52%
level
20%
Olympic scores more
27%

Lions at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lions 3 – 2 Olympic

Lions beat Olympic 3-2 in Queensland NPL on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Lions FC Stadium in Brisbane.