Lions 2–3 Athletic 220: Result & Stats

Lions

FT

2 – 3

Athletic 220

10/3/2021

Premier League · Round 18Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lions18%

×Draw17%

Athletic 22065%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LionsExpected goals in this matchAthletic 220

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.67

Lions

1.34

Athletic 220

2.67

Athletic 220 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

1.39

creates per match

2.11

3.22

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Lions

1.39

Athletic 220

2.11

allows per match

Lions

3.22

Athletic 220

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lions+0.00on par

Athletic 220+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Athletic 220 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Lions or draw

35%

Lions or Athletic 220

83%

Draw or Athletic 220

82%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+

7%

Athletic 220 wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals

74%

Lions 2+ goals

39%

Lions 3+ goals

15%

Athletic 220 1+ goals

93%

Athletic 220 2+ goals

74%

Athletic 220 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)

21%

Athletic 220 (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 1.39, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

Athletic 220 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 1.39 + Athletic 220 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Athletic 220 attack 2.11 + Lions defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lions scores more

18%

level

17%

Athletic 220 scores more

65%

Athletic 220 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Athletic 220 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff