Lion City W 1–4 Odisha W: Result & Stats

Lion City W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Odisha W

8/25/2024

AFC Women's Champions League · Preliminary Round - 1Prince Mohammed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lion City W82%

×Draw10%

Odisha W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lion City WExpected goals in this matchOdisha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.54

1.54

Lion City W

4.54

Odisha W

1.54

Lion City W creates 195% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

7.33

creates per match

Lion City W

1.75

Odisha W

1.33

allows per match

Lion City W

1.75

Odisha W

7.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lion City W+0.00on par

Odisha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lion City W ↓

Odisha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Lion City W or draw

92%

Lion City W or Odisha W

90%

Draw or Odisha W

18%

Winning margin

Lion City W wins by 2+

67%

Odisha W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lion City W 1+ goals

99%

Lion City W 2+ goals

93%

Lion City W 3+ goals

80%

Odisha W 1+ goals

79%

Odisha W 2+ goals

45%

Odisha W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lion City W (draw refunded)

91%

Odisha W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lion City W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Odisha W away — creates 1.33, concedes 7.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lion City W attack 1.75 + Odisha W defence 7.33 → ÷2 → 4.54

Odisha W attack 1.33 + Lion City W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lion City W scores more

82%

level

10%

Odisha W scores more

8%

Lion City W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Lion City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff