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Lion Blessé vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
CANC
00:00
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
5/3/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lion Blessé49%
×Draw24%
Unisport Bafang27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lion Blessé
1.74
Unisport Bafang
1.24

Lion Blessé creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lion Blessé
2.43
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Lion Blessé
1.43
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Lion Blessé+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lion Blessé ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lion Blessé or draw
73%
Lion Blessé or Unisport Bafang
76%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
51%

Winning margin

Lion Blessé wins by 2+
26%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lion Blessé 1+ goals
82%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
52%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
25%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
71%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
35%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
64%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lion Blessé at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lion Blessé attack 2.43 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.74

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Lion Blessé defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lion Blessé scores more
49%
level
24%
Unisport Bafang scores more
27%

Lion Blessé at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lion Blessé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lion Blessé face Unisport Bafang (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Lion Blessé hosting Unisport Bafang. Match starts May 3, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.