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Lion Blessé vs FC Rangers — Elite Two 2020

Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
CANC
00:00
FC Rangers
FC Rangers
6/28/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lion Blessé61%
×Draw20%
FC Rangers18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lion Blessé
2.17
FC Rangers
1.10

Lion Blessé creates 97% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lion Blessé
2.43
FC Rangers
0.78

allows per match

Lion Blessé
1.43
FC Rangers
1.91

finishing

Lion Blessé+0.00on par
FC Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lion Blessé ↓

FC Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lion Blessé or draw
82%
Lion Blessé or FC Rangers
80%
Draw or FC Rangers
39%

Winning margin

Lion Blessé wins by 2+
38%
FC Rangers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lion Blessé 1+ goals
89%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
64%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
36%
FC Rangers 1+ goals
67%
FC Rangers 2+ goals
30%
FC Rangers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
77%
FC Rangers (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lion Blessé at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

FC Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lion Blessé attack 2.43 + FC Rangers defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.17

FC Rangers attack 0.78 + Lion Blessé defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lion Blessé scores more
61%
level
20%
FC Rangers scores more
18%

Lion Blessé at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lion Blessé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lion Blessé host FC Rangers

June 28, 2022: Lion Blessé take on FC Rangers in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.