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Lion Blessé vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
CANC
00:00
FAP
FAP
4/23/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lion Blessé50%
×Draw22%
FAP27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lion Blessé
1.94
FAP
1.38

Lion Blessé creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 50 away

creates per match

Lion Blessé
2.43
FAP
1.32

allows per match

Lion Blessé
1.43
FAP
1.44

finishing

Lion Blessé+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lion Blessé ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lion Blessé or draw
73%
Lion Blessé or FAP
78%
Draw or FAP
50%

Winning margin

Lion Blessé wins by 2+
29%
FAP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lion Blessé 1+ goals
86%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
58%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
30%
FAP 1+ goals
75%
FAP 2+ goals
40%
FAP 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
65%
FAP (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lion Blessé at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lion Blessé attack 2.43 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

FAP attack 1.32 + Lion Blessé defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lion Blessé scores more
50%
level
22%
FAP scores more
27%

Lion Blessé at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lion Blessé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lion Blessé face FAP (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Lion Blessé hosting FAP. Match starts April 23, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.