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Linth vs Höngg — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Linth
Linth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Höngg
Höngg
3/22/20231. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19SGU - Platz Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Linth49%
×Draw22%
Höngg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linth
1.91
Höngg
1.43

Linth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 74 away

creates per match

Linth
1.93
Höngg
1.28

allows per match

Linth
1.58
Höngg
1.89

finishing

Linth+0.00on par
Höngg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linth ↓

Höngg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Linth or draw
71%
Linth or Höngg
78%
Draw or Höngg
51%

Winning margin

Linth wins by 2+
27%
Höngg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Linth 1+ goals
85%
Linth 2+ goals
57%
Linth 3+ goals
30%
Höngg 1+ goals
76%
Höngg 2+ goals
42%
Höngg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Linth (draw refunded)
63%
Höngg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linth at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

Höngg away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.89 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linth attack 1.93 + Höngg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.91

Höngg attack 1.28 + Linth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Linth scores more
49%
level
22%
Höngg scores more
29%

Linth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Linth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Linth 2–0 Höngg

Linth beat Höngg 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at SGU - Platz Nord in Näfels.